Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS63 KUNR 141714
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1114 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly tonight. Patchy frost possible late across portions of
  the northeastern WY plains.

- Mostly dry with warming temperatures through mid week. Windy
  Monday and Wednesday.

- Better chances for showers/storms next weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Clearing skies with light winds and dry air will allow temps to
fall into the mid 30s across portions of the NE WY Plains tonight,
mainly the Belle Fourche river valley. Patchy frost will be
possible there. Warmer Sunday but still seasonally cool. An upper
trough will clip far NW SD SD Monday with perhaps a few showers
and isolated storms there in the afternoon. Otherwise, most areas
will be dry and breezy Monday with elevated to near critical fire
weather conds across the southwest third.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Water vapor imagery shows cyclonic flow across the central/eastern
CONUS...with northwest flow across the region and a shortwave
crossing the CWA at this time. KUDX radar the band of drizzle/rain
gradually weakening over the last two hours. Far northeast WY, where
the rain lingered longest this morning, had the most QPF with totals
of 0.30-0.60". Northwest winds continue at the surface behind a cold
front that passed earlier today. Temps have been very cool for mid
June...generally 50s and 60s, though some parts of the northeast WY
plains were in the mid to upper 40s. Surface high pressure will
build across the CWA for Sunday and Monday bringing quiet weather to
the northern Plains. Chilly temperatures are in store for tonight
and Sunday morning. Widespread 30s are expected across the Black
Hills...even some 20s across the highest elevations. Portions of the
northeastern WY plains may also see temps dip into the 30s...even
approaching the mid 30s. Could see a few spots of frost develop
mainly across sheltered location along the Belle Fourche River
valley. The areal coverage is much too limited for any frost
headlines at this time, especially with how early the sun rises
this time of year. As mentioned, dry weather is expected the next
couple of days. However, with northwest flow aloft with embedded
shortwaves persisting across the region, could see some breezy
winds on Monday. A strong shortwave is progged to cross the
Dakotas late Tuesday into Wednesday. This could bring strong winds
to the area on Wednesday with gusts to advisory or warning
thresholds. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with
this wave, but the bulk of the QPF could stay north and east of
the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Winds
in northeast WY will slowly increase through tonight into tomorrow
afternoon, as well as shift from SSW to NW.&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Schweigert