Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS63 KUNR 042309
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
509 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are still possible today in and near the
  Black Hills but the evening and overnight look quiet across the
  area.

- Fire weather concerns return to parts of southwest South Dakota
  and northeast Wyoming Sunday afternoon into early evening. A
  Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

- Better chances for thunderstorms early next week

- Above normal highs will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery (as of 2PM) shows clear to
mostly clear skies around the plains. But the Black Hills had 1
storm cell develop that produced 2 inch hail stones. It faded out
as quickly as it developed.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, any thunderstorms
that are able to get going will fade out quickly again. Overnight
will be dry with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

Tomorrow, Sunday, is looking much warmer than today. Skies will
be clear to mostly clear and dry again but afternoon temps jump
into the 90s to near 100F. With the hot air, relative humidity
will dip to around 10 to 25%, lowest percentages will be in
northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota. Wind speeds in the
afternoon will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph.
With numbers like that so close to Red Flag Warning criteria, a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for parts of the far southwest
CWA.

To start the next week, Monday and Tuesday bring back the storm
chances. While the overall pattern has an upper level high
pressure building over the desert southwest, a ridge riding low
could bring storm chances to the area. Both Monday and Tuesday
have chances for storms in the afternoon. Model data points to
there being a chance for those storms to be strong to severe,
stay tuned for updates.

A quick glance at the rest of the week, the near daily chances
for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue.
Temperatures will be at or above normal with highs in the 80s to
90s, near 100 degrees are possible again late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 509 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for SDZ322.
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for WYZ315-317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...SE